Wednesday, November 9, 2016

The Election

It looks like Donald Trump won the election this year. Wow! Everyone thought he was just blustering when the polls were inaccurate and rigged against him, especially since every single poll for the past year said he would lose. I personally can't believe it. I thought Hillary had this election in the bag. Why wouldn't I? They said she had a 98% chance of winning.

I don't have time to gather my thoughts into a cohesive unit right now, so here are all the random thoughts I have.

1. It was a typical election for us on the West Coast. We voted Democrat in a landslide, and the President was picked by the rest of the country. I wonder what it'd be like to live in a place where your vote mattered. It'd probably be pretty crazy right now.

2. Once again, the predictive polling got Hispanics completely wrong, in three ways.

a. The majority of Hispanics are concentrated in California and Texas, states that are up for grabs. This lowers their impact as a voting bloc.
b. "Hispanics" is a really broad category, so it's silly to assume they will all vote the same way every time. A Cuban from Florida is different from a Puerto Rican in New York, who's different from a Mexican in California, who's different from Pope Francis.
c. Everyone assumed that Trump would do worse than Romney with Hispanics. Mitt Romney was accused of being a huge racist, in some cases he was accused of wanting to start a race war, and that very much hurt his polling numbers with minorities. He got 12% of Hispanics, so everyone assumed that would be the maximum for Trump. Instead, he got 20-30%. Putting a cap on Trump's Hispanic numbers was clearly a bad idea.

The polls got Asians wrong by the same percentage margins, but nobody seems to be talking about that.

3. Speaking of racism, I've already heard some racist remarks against white people, because of the election results. Don't be racist like that, guys.

4. My Republican friends are both happy and sad about the results. They're happy they won, but they're sad, because this means they have to spend the next four years reigning in President Trump, making sure he keeps his election promises and doesn't go off the rails. They are reticent to admit that they'll probably want to reject any Supreme Court nomination from Trump, considering that his short list (of 40) contains people they dislike.


Anonymous said...

the one hopeful thing is that he said in his speech that he would rather seek to make friends and talk things out instead of going into more war.

I guess we have to just wait and see and hope for the best, but I still wish Bernie had taken up the Green's offer to run on their ticket, he could have won.

Anonymous said...

I live in Florida which always end up being a swing state. A lot of craziness!