Sunday, February 28, 2016

Bul 3

Okay, let me do more math, with the Bul minigame. You already rolled once, and now you can either roll or stay.

Opponent is 1 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 25%.
Opponent is 2 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 44%.
Opponent is 3 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 44%.
Opponent is 4 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 33%.
Opponent is 5 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 28%.
Opponent is 6 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 14%.
Opponent is 7 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 7%.
Opponent is 8 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 4%.
Opponent is 9 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 1%.
Opponent is 10 space away and you stay. Odds of you losing are 1%.

Opponent is 1 space away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 25%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 0%.
Opponent is 2 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 38%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 6%.
Opponent is 3 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 25%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 18%.
Opponent is 4 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 6%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 27%.
Opponent is 5 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 6%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 22%.
Opponent is 6 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 0%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 14%.
Opponent is 7 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 0%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 8%.
Opponent is 8 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 0%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 4%.
Opponent is 9 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 0%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 1%.
Opponent is 10 spaces away and you roll. Odds of you winning are 0%, odds of them winning on their first turn are 1%.

Conclusion: The sweet spot is 1-3 spaces away. If you are 1-3 spaces away, always take a second roll. In the same way, if you are 5 or more spaces away, always stay and let the opponent come closer.

4 spaces is more tricky! If you're playing Secret of the Scarlet Hand, then you want to stay. If you're playing the Curse of Blackmoor Manor, you're in a bad position, because Jane can take a double turn, which means the odds of her defeating you are the same, if you stay or roll. I guess you just have to flip that coin.

2 comments:

Stephanie said...

Michael. Please. Stop.

Katie said...

Don't stop. Fun stuff. :D